A band of relentless rain is sweeping across the UK this weekend, with the Met Office issuing multiple Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings for south Wales, southwest England, and southeast England — a pattern that’s expected to linger into early next week. The warnings, updated at 12:46 AM UTC on November 29, 2025, signal not just wet weather, but the real risk of flash flooding, disrupted transport, and property damage. What makes this event stand out isn’t just the volume of rain — up to 80 millimeters in places — but how persistent and widespread it is. And for residents in places like Bannau Brycheiniog, Dartmoor, and the North and South Downs, this isn’t just inconvenient. It’s dangerous.
Where the rain is hitting hardest
It’s not a blanket downpour. The heaviest rain is concentrated over high ground, where orographic lift turns ordinary clouds into deluges. In Bannau Brycheiniog, rainfall could reach 60–80 millimeters by Monday afternoon — enough to turn streams into rivers and saturate slopes prone to landslides. Across Dartmoor, the same pattern repeats. The Met Office says 60–80 millimeters is likely there too, with even more possible in isolated spots. Meanwhile, the Exmoor, Mendips, and Cotswolds are bracing for 40–50 millimeters. And don’t think you’re safe if you’re in London. While the capital won’t see the worst of it, the North and South Downs — stretching from Surrey to Kent — are in the crosshairs for 50–60 millimeters of rain between Monday and Tuesday morning.
It’s not just about quantity. The timing matters. Rain arrives late Sunday evening, November 30, 2025, and doesn’t let up until early Tuesday, December 3, 2025. That’s over 60 hours of persistent moisture. And with wind gusts hitting 17 mph in places, especially over eastern England, it’s not just standing water — it’s driven rain, sideways and stinging, turning roads into rivers and reducing visibility to near zero.
Why this weather keeps coming
Here’s the thing: this isn’t one storm. It’s a series. The Met Office describes a pattern of successive low-pressure systems rolling in from the Atlantic, each one slower than the last. They’re stalling just off the UK’s western coast, like traffic jams over water. That’s why the same areas get hit again and again. The system that drenched southwest England on Friday night? It’s already been followed by another. And another is on the way. This isn’t unusual for November — but it’s unusually prolonged.
“We’ve seen this before,” says Dr. Eleanor Hargreaves, a climatologist at the University of Exeter. “But the frequency of these slow-moving lows is increasing. In the 1990s, you’d get one major rain event every three or four weeks in November. Now? It’s every 10 days.” The data backs her up: the UK’s average November rainfall has increased by 18% since 1980, and the number of days with over 20 millimeters of rain has doubled in the last two decades.
What’s broken — and who’s affected
Transport is already buckling. The Network Rail has issued alerts for potential delays on the Great Western Main Line, where flooding near Swindon and Exeter has already caused cancellations. The Highways Agency is monitoring over 40 flood-prone road sections, including the A40 near Hereford and the A303 through Devon. Emergency services in Cardiff and Exeter report a 30% spike in flood-related calls since Friday.
And it’s not just commuters. Farmers in Monmouthshire are watching their fields turn to mud. One grower near Usk told a local reporter, “I’ve planted 12 acres of winter wheat. If this keeps up, I’m losing half of it — and I can’t replant until spring.” Meanwhile, schools in Worcestershire and East Sussex are preparing contingency plans — some may close on Tuesday if roads remain impassable.
What the Met Office isn’t saying — but should be
The Met Office is doing its job: issuing warnings, updating forecasts, and flagging risks. But there’s a gap. The Yellow warnings say “be aware.” But for people in flood-prone neighborhoods, “be aware” isn’t enough. They need actionable advice: Where are the sandbags? Who’s checking on elderly neighbors? Which drains are blocked?
Local councils in Devon and Wales are scrambling to distribute sandbags, but many residents say they’ve been told to “wait for official guidance.” That delay could cost homes. The Environment Agency has 12 flood barriers in place across the region — but they’re designed for one-off events, not back-to-back storms.
What’s next — and how long it lasts
The good news? The worst of the rain should ease by Wednesday. But the Met Office’s long-range forecast is chilling: “Low pressure is likely to carry on dominating the UK’s weather, especially through the middle part of December.” That means more of this. More delays. More flooded basements. More anxious calls to 999.
Temperatures? They’ll hover around 4–9°C — close to average, but that’s cold when your house is damp and your car won’t start. And with wind chill, it feels colder still. There’s no heatwave coming to dry things out. Just more rain.
What you can do
If you live in a flood zone, check your local council’s website for sandbag distribution points. Keep your phone charged. Know your nearest high ground. Don’t drive through standing water — just six inches can sweep away a car. And if you see someone struggling, help them. This isn’t just weather. It’s community.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much rain is expected in total over the weekend and into next week?
Rainfall totals will vary by region, but widespread areas will see 20–30 millimeters, with localized accumulations of 50–80 millimeters over high ground like Dartmoor, Bannau Brycheiniog, and the North Downs. The heaviest rain is expected between Sunday evening, November 30, and Tuesday morning, December 2, 2025, with multiple systems stacking up over the same areas.
Why are Yellow warnings being issued multiple times instead of one extended warning?
The Met Office issues separate warnings because each rain band comes from a distinct low-pressure system moving in from the Atlantic. Even though conditions are similar, each system has its own timing and intensity profile. This allows for more precise alerts — and helps emergency services plan response efforts for each wave, not just one big event.
Are schools and public services shutting down?
Some schools in flood-prone areas like Devon, Herefordshire, and parts of Wales are preparing to close on Tuesday, December 2, if roads remain unsafe. Local authorities are making decisions based on real-time data — there’s no blanket shutdown. Public transport, especially rail services in southwest England, is already experiencing delays and cancellations.
Is this connected to climate change?
While no single event can be blamed on climate change, the pattern — more frequent, slower-moving storms with heavier rainfall — matches what climate models predicted. The UK has seen a 18% rise in average November rainfall since 1980, and extreme rainfall events are now 40% more likely than they were 40 years ago, according to the UK Climate Projections 2018.
What’s the difference between Yellow, Amber, and Red weather warnings?
Yellow means ‘be aware’ — severe weather is possible and could affect travel or daily life. Amber is ‘be prepared’ — disruption is likely and you should plan ahead. Red is ‘take action’ — danger to life is imminent, and you must protect yourself. These are Yellow warnings — serious, but not yet critical.
Where can I get real-time updates on road and rail closures?
For roads, check the Highways Agency website or call 0300 123 5000. For rail updates, visit Network Rail’s live status page or use the National Rail Enquiries app. Local radio stations like BBC Radio Devon and BBC Radio Wales also broadcast real-time travel alerts.
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